Implied and Effective Odds Explained

Ronald Norris

Implied Odds

Most poker players understand that there is a mathematical element to the game that must be appreciated, even if the player does not allow his play to be dominated by mathematical ideas. Fortunately for poker players, most of the math in poker is very basic. One of the simplest, yet most important aspects of poker math is the idea of pot odds.

The Idea behind Pot Odds

Pot odds are a way to understand poker situations in terms of traditional gambling. It’s easy to see that a straight number in roulette pays off at 35-to-1, or that a certain hand in video poker may pay 5-to-1, but what are the comparable odds for real poker? They are determined by the amount of money in the pot relative to the amount that you have to put in. If there is $70 in the pot and it is $10 for you to call, you are getting 7-to-1 pot odds. If you think you will win the hand more than one time out of eight, you should call. If not you should fold.

The Idea behind Implied Odds

Implied odds takes the idea of pot odds to the next level. Implied odds are defined as the pot odds with additional money that may be won on later streets taken into account. As an example, suppose you hold Ts-8h and the board is 7c 6d Ah 3s. Your odds of making a straight on the next card are about 11-to-1. There is $150 in the pot and somebody bets $50. This person has about $600 more in their stack. Because of the way you have seen this particular player play before, you have a strong sense that he has a set, maybe even three aces. If this player has a set and a 9 comes, he will probably bet the size of the pot, at which point you will go all-in and he will call, winning you the $150 + the other $600 in his stack. Even though calling $50 to win $150 would not be correct, as you are only getting 3-to-1 on an 11-to-1 shot, calling if you think you can stack the opponent if a 9 comes would be correct.

Caution About Implied Odds

Note that in this situation, circumstances have to be exactly perfect for you to make this call. If the opponent had only $300 in his stack, or if his betting line indicated a weaker hand, or if there were two diamonds on the board potentially killing some of your outs, folding would be the correct play. Be honest with yourself when calculating implied odds.

Effective Odds

What are effective odds? There is often some confusion about what effective odds means. Some people think it is synonymous with implied odds, while others refer to “effective pot odds” which can confuse the issue. Basically, effective odds are another way of modifying pot odds depending on the situation.

Why Do Pot Odds Need Modification?

If hold’em were a flop only game, you wouldn’t have to worry about anything other than pot odds. If there is $100 in the pot and you have to call $25 to see your opponent’s cards, you need to have a better than 4-to-1 chance of winning for the call to be worthwhile. However, the game is not that simple. When calculating pot odds, one must consider what will happen on the turn or river as well.

Effective Odds vs. Implied Odds

When considering implied odds, one takes into account additional money that may be won if one hits their hand on the turn or river. If the bet is $50 and the pot is currently $200, but the player thinks they can win another $200 on the turn or river, then their implied odds are 8-to-1 rather than 4-to-1. Effective odds are the other side of this coin. If a player is 2-to-1 to make their hand by the river, but they expect to be forced off their hand if they miss on the turn, their effective odds to hit their hand are really 4-to-1.

Effective Pot Odds

If a player expects that they will face another bet on the turn but may not be forced off the hand, they can calculate effective pot odds. In other words, a player has a flush draw and is facing a $50 bet at a $150 pot. His immediate pot odds are 3-to-1. He expects that if he hits his hand on the turn, he can win another $200. This makes his implied odds 7-to-1. However if he misses the turn, he can expect that he will be facing another $200 bet, making his effective pot odds on the turn 2-to-1. This averages out to odds of 4.5-to-1, and since you are 4-to-1 to make your flush by the river, it is still correct to call if you have assessed the situation correctly.

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